Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 35.822195 38.850036 42.160918 46.077585 50.620910 55.771248 62.118736
2025-03-30 31.200151 35.195539 39.865756 45.825405 53.378601 62.856353 76.043025
2025-04-06 28.212096 32.615792 37.987039 45.197391 54.924487 68.097971 88.326913
2025-04-13 25.668088 30.169760 35.822707 43.687509 54.794576 70.745958 97.302877
2025-04-20 24.747896 29.611188 35.915330 45.044982 58.641898 79.610396 118.373199
2025-04-27 23.903539 29.036706 35.874837 46.134764 62.175817 88.662810 143.219415
2025-05-04 23.044556 28.349096 35.580325 46.767355 65.032860 97.178805 170.999520
2025-05-11 21.999034 27.317777 34.694605 46.376660 66.109482 102.690310 195.073265
2025-05-18 21.003494 26.284369 33.714650 45.715966 66.591439 107.127906 219.187870
2025-05-25 20.039078 25.234714 32.630789 44.772288 66.416533 110.160105 241.508239
2025-06-01 19.175352 24.280754 31.623992 43.855595 66.154112 112.938079 265.397222
2025-06-08 18.311202 23.283518 30.491747 42.633143 65.155247 113.833241 283.698055
2025-06-15 18.118012 23.276223 30.901128 44.109805 69.730171 129.664941 385.019148
2025-06-22 17.529174 22.656489 30.323738 43.831891 70.764211 137.062840 463.516609
2025-06-29 16.922172 21.978882 29.611560 43.245850 71.059474 142.592769 546.528322
2025-07-06 16.187932 21.078045 28.494942 41.839248 69.391202 141.940749 585.465465
2025-07-13 16.053873 21.079016 28.824833 43.103905 73.836056 161.869154 907.145762
2025-07-20 15.874560 20.999168 29.013426 44.117963 77.914173 183.134632 1532.182826
2025-07-27 15.625477 20.797599 28.984447 44.706109 81.088575 203.336322 2848.030303
2025-08-03 15.223895 20.339275 28.496280 44.342907 81.799965 214.117072 4859.335942
2025-08-10 14.803288 19.835339 27.905950 43.728392 81.766515 221.789024 8885.925936
2025-08-17 14.361761 19.283554 27.209665 42.849990 80.910241 225.329087 16791.242261
2025-08-24 13.947157 18.762246 26.545560 41.995930 80.019494 228.491641 45096.763997